2025 Hurricane Forecast: 17 Named Storms and Elevated Risk for Florida, Experts Warn

As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, forecasters are sounding the alarm for another busy year. The Sarasota-based Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) has released its annual outlook, predicting 17 named storms, including 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), continuing a concerning trend of rising storm activity fueled by record-setting ocean temperatures.

At the center’s annual forecast event, CAC CEO and veteran meteorologist Bob Bunting shared that unusually warm ocean waters, both globally and in the Atlantic, are the primary drivers of the expected uptick in storm activity. “Ocean temperatures last year reached levels we’ve never seen before in recorded human history,” Bunting said. “These temperatures provide fuel for stronger, more frequent storms.”

Bunting added that while it’s still early, key ingredients for hurricane formation—like warm sea surface temperatures, reduced wind shear, and less Saharan dust—are already present. Particularly worrisome is the Gulf of Mexico, where abnormally warm waters are extending deeper below the surface than usual. This setup allows storms to intensify rapidly, a phenomenon seen in recent years with hurricanes strengthening significantly in just 24 to 48 hours.

Since 2015, the average number of named storms per year has climbed from 14 to 18, according to recent CAC data. The 2025 forecast of 17 named storms fits squarely within this upward trend. Historical records also confirm that storms are not only becoming more frequent but more intense, a shift linked to climate change and warming seas.

Bunting emphasized that this forecast is not just academic. In both 2023 and 2024, the CAC’s predictions closely matched actual storm counts, often missing by only a single hurricane or major hurricane. The trend of rapid intensification and high storm counts shows no sign of slowing down.

In addition to ocean heat, other contributing factors this year include a persistent warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and lower-than-average wind shear, both of which favor storm development. The models also highlight July and October as high-risk months, with the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean remaining particularly vulnerable.

Bunting urged residents, especially Floridians, to take preparedness seriously. “Florida remains in the high-risk zone,” he said. “It’s not about panic, but about purposeful preparation.” He warned that hurricanes hitting during peak summer heat—especially in July—could be devastating if power outages leave residents without air conditioning for days, as heat is already the nation’s deadliest weather threat.

While the 2025 season looks threatening, Bunting offered a note of resolve. “The climate will continue to get warmer for the rest of our lives,” he said. “That doesn’t mean we have to run away, but it does mean we need to adapt, prepare, and act intelligently.”

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and runs through November 30.

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